Discussion in 'Reality Check' started by Scott, Sep 18, 2020.
Should be fun
The worst thing about those models is everyone thinks that cone represents the size of the storm.
Good luck, could be a doozy when it gets there...anything from a Cat 2 to wet and windy.
no one realizes it potential direction
Yeah, and I've been following all the storms pretty detailed regularly as I usually do...this one here is certainly not well known yet.
The euro model called for NS/NB landfall a week ago and GFS (what hurricane centers tend to use for forecasts) had it curving out to sea. All of a sudden a little ridge that the euro model seen a week ago was picked up by GFS which is curving it in to land. However, they really have no idea how strong that ridge will be, how much effect it will really have on the storm, nor how strong this storm might be when it gets there.
The ensemble model runs have been quite spread apart, so it truly could land anywhere from northern Maine to NFLD...that middle of the cone NS path is not even close to full confidence. Best thing to do is plan for bad storm and hope for the best.
In 48hrs they will be much more confident where it's going and how bad it will be.
Not paying too much attention to it just yet
I don't miss this game. "will it hit us or will it not?"
Though... main issue is property damage and now I have a place in NS again so I suppose I should pay attention. Damnit.
2:31 PM ADT Friday 18 September 2020
Tropical cyclone information statement for Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island for Hurricane Teddy.
The next information statement will be issued by 09:00 A.M. ADT Saturday.
Hurricane Teddy will approach the Maritimes early next week with impacts likely for parts of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As of Friday afternoon, major hurricane Teddy is currently southeast of Bermuda and is moving northwestward. Teddy will continue on its current path over the next few days before making a turn northward on Sunday. Teddy is then expected to enter the Canadian Hurricane Centre response zone on Monday before approaching the Maritimes on Tuesday.
Track errors this far in advance remain large, but the latest computer modelling suggests that the centre of Teddy could make landfall along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia late Tuesday. Possible impacts include strong, potentially damaging winds, storm surge along with pounding surf, and heavy rainfall.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is closely monitoring the evolution of this potentially dangerous storm. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor forecasts this weekend as the situation continues to evolve.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing regular updates on Teddy beginning 09:00 AM Saturday.
Got my dock out of the water last weeked so that's good... guess I'll pack up the lawn furniture today
edited to re-host image as static
We are leaving for CB in the morning to go camping, coming home Wednesday afternoon. May have to rethink the last day lol.
Keep going East please
sydney is in for a ride
coming back westerly. doh
Gonna be a wet and windy one
Most of my work was supposed to be outside tomorrow. Early day!
Stay safe, nerds. Winds look like they're dropping for landfall at least.
Got lucky with this one.