2009 Economic Predictions

Discussion in 'Reality Check' started by idrivemyrentsvan, Feb 4, 2009.

  1. idrivemyrentsvan

    Active Member

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    Lets hear them financial gurus of RC :)

    We've now seen the results of 2008 Q4, the 2008 housing data, and the current weekly unemployment numbers... so where do you think we're heading?

    I think oil will get as low as $35/barrel but will have a decent rally in the fall and end the year up around $55/barrel.

    I think the stock market will continue sliding sideways and the S&P will be around 900 at the end of the year (slight increase). I don't really follow the TSX so I have no prediction there, but I think commodities will stay pretty shitty. I think late summer 2010 is when the markets will really start rallying (about 6-8 months later than people are hoping)

    I think housing prices across Canada will continue to slide with BC, Alberta, and Ontario all getting nailed. The only places where I don't think house prices will fall is Halifax, Moncton, Charlottetown, Saint John, St Johns, and Saskatoon... these cities will have a drop in sales volume but I think prices will hold.

    I think house prices in the US will continue to fall all year long, but summer 2010 will be when they bottom out.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2009
  2. Twopoops

    Hidey Ho

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    We need housing prices to stabilize and credit spreads to come down before the stock markets really take off. When that will be, I don't know. I do have confidence in the long term performance of the markets and believe the general up trend will continue. There has always been booms and busts, and there will always be booms and busts. This is just a blip in the big picture.
     
  3. idrivemyrentsvan

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    My father keeps telling me "the World has changed". He says things like all the growth we've had for the past 10 years has been debt fueled, and the baby boomers retiring changes everything, etc. which sometimes makes me wonder how strong we'll rebound.
     
  4. Twopoops

    Hidey Ho

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    You're right that some things change, but there will always be something else that pops up to spur growth. Look at China 20 years ago compared to now. There are something like 40,000 people per day moving from a rural setting to an urban setting in China. I believe they just crossed the point where where 50% of the total population of China lives in an urban setting. More urbanization leads to a higher GDP per capita. China's growth isn't going to stop, and I think Canada will benefit through the demand for commodities.
     
  5. dpwu32

    Trash elf

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    Mine:

    -TSX pretty much flat until 3rd quarter. End the year up 5-10% from where it currently sits.

    -Oil flat for the first 2 quarters, closing the year in the $50-60 range.

    -Housing slightly up in NS, NB, NFLD, down slightly in AB, BC, ON over the course of 2009.
     
  6. watcha

    Born Killer

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    Massive lay offs and lots of bad debt
    massive amounts of money flooding to the big 3
    Massive amounts of people filing bankruptcy due to over extension.
    less mortgages below a regular rate of borrowing.
    houseing prices falling everywhere but where I want to buy.

    Staggering numbers of really skilled workers getting desperate and working crappy crapp jobs.
     

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